Here are the latest widely reported updates on El Niño for 2026.
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NOAA and multiple climate outlets indicate a significant chance of El Niño developing in 2026, with forecasts suggesting formation could occur between mid-year and into the 2026/2027 winter season. This could push global temperatures toward new records and influence weather patterns worldwide. [NOAA forecast summaries; multiple outlets in early 2026]
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Several sources project that if El Niño strengthens, North America could see wetter and cooler conditions in parts of the Southern U.S. and warmer, drier conditions in the Northern Plains and western Canada during the upcoming winter, while other regions may experience heatwaves and drought in affected years. [Long-range forecast analyses and ENSO outlooks from late 2025 into 2026]
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The World Meteorological Organization and other regional agencies have publicly warned that even a mid-2026 onset could lead to a notable spike in global average temperatures, with potential implications for extreme weather events such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and drought in susceptible areas. [WMO/UN and related briefings]
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Some assessments emphasize uncertainty due to the spring predictability barrier, but the general consensus among major meteorological centers is that El Niño is likely to re-emerge in 2026, peaking in the 2026/2027 winter season in many models. [ENSO diagnostic discussions and ensemble forecasts from 2025–2026]
If you want, I can extract a concise, region-specific outlook for your area in Marseille or for your country, and provide a short FAQ on what El Niño could mean for weather, agriculture, and energy in 2026–2027. Would you like that?
Sources
According to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 50–60% chance that the El Niño phenomenon will form in the period from July to September 2026. Illustration The return of "the boy" – the Spanish term for El Niño – occurs in the context of already very high global temperatures due to climate change. Experts warn that if this scenario occurs, the world may enter a more extreme and severe weather cycle. El Niño and La Niña are two...
www.tridge.comForecasters predict the return of El Niño weather from as early as May
www.independent.co.ukForecasts show an El Niño developing in 2026, with seasonal weather impacts over the United States, Canada, and Europe expected in 2026/2027
www.severe-weather.euThe warming El Niño weather phenomenon could form later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to record heights.
phys.orgThe weather phenomenon known as El Niño could form later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to record heights, researchers say.
www.cbsnews.comThe El Niño weather phenomenon, which pushed global temperatures to record highs the last time around, is expected to return in mid-2026, the UN said Friday.
phys.org