El Niño and La Niña Information - National Weather Service
El Niño and La Niña Information
www.weather.govHere’s a concise update on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) latest news based on reputable sources.
Key takeaway
- ENSO is currently in neutral conditions, with forecasts suggesting a possible shift toward El Niño later in 2026, depending on oceanic and atmospheric indicators.[3][5]
Recent developments
- NOAA CPC/NWS released a diagnostic discussion indicating ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through spring 2026, with increasing odds of El Niño developing between May and July 2026 and persisting through at least the end of 2026. This aligns with ongoing monitoring of Niño region SSTs and atmospheric patterns such as trade winds and convection shifts.[5]
- In early 2025, NOAA and Climate.gov reported that La Niña had ended and the tropical Pacific entered ENSO-neutral conditions, with forecasts suggesting neutral conditions likely through the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2025; this provided context for potential El Niño onset later that year. Note that subsequent updates through 2026 are focused on whether El Niño conditions emerge this year, with probabilities varying by month as new data arrive.[3]
Impacts to watch
- El Niño tends to bring warmer global average temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, especially in the tropics and cross-continental influences; shifts from neutral to El Niño can influence winter storm tracks, rainfall in the Americas, and drought/flood risks in different regions depending on the strength and timing of the event.[3]
- If El Niño does develop in 2026, we may see increased chances of above-average winter rainfall in some parts of the U.S. and Asia-Pacific warming signals, but the exact regional impacts depend on the strength and duration of the event.[5]
Where to follow for official updates
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion reports and CPC/NWS outlooks, which provide monthly (or more frequent) assessments and probabilistic forecasts for ENSO phases.[8]
- Climate.gov maintains ongoing ENSO updates and explainer content with the latest official outlooks and the rationale behind forecast shifts.[3]
Would you like a quick, region-focused briefing (e.g., New York City area, Northeast, or globally) with expected temperature and precipitation implications for the upcoming season? I can pull the latest CPC outlooks and translate them into practical forecasts for your area.