El Nino and La Nina information
El Nino and La Nina information, including sea surface temperatures, as applied to the pacific basin
www.weather.govHere’s a concise update on the latest thinking around El Niño and La Niña.
What’s current
- The global ENSO pattern has been shifting from El Niño toward La Niña or neutral conditions in recent periods, with forecasts commonly describing increased odds of La Niña (or near-neutral) during the coming months depending on the region and time window.[3][7]
- Several authoritative sources note that the exceptionally strong El Niño of 2023/24 has ended, and forecast updates have shown mounting probability of La Niña in mid-to-late 2024 and into 2025, though actual outcomes varied by region and model, with some updates emphasizing only a weak La Niña or a return to neutral conditions.[4][5][3]
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has published updates indicating a likely swing toward La Niña later in the year, with probabilities often quoted around the 50–70% range for entering La Niña or neutral conditions during mid-to-late year 2024 in many ensembles, though strengths and durations remain uncertain.[8][9][3]
Regional and global implications
- Global temperatures and extreme-weather risk can be affected by ENSO phase: El Niño tends to raise global average temperatures and increase certain weather extremes, while La Niña tends to have a cooling influence on global averages but can still feature regional warmth or dryness in some areas.[5][3]
- NOAA/NOAA-affiliated climate centers and other meteorological bodies regularly update forecasts as new ocean-atmosphere data come in, so expect periodic revisions to the balance between El Niño, neutral, and La Niña conditions through 2026 as the Pacific evolves.[5][8]
What to watch next
- Look for quarterly ENSO updates from WMO/IRI and NOAA, which typically summarize the likelihood of El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions and offer anticipated impacts for the coming seasons.[8][5]
- For a quick read, major outlets often synthesize these updates into headlines like “El Niño is over; La Niña likely” or “La Niña returns later this year,” but regional forecasts can diverge, so check local forecasts if you’re planning agriculture, water resources, or disaster risk actions.[10][3]
If you’d like, I can pull the most recent official ENSO update summaries and provide a concise region-by-region interpretation for your area (New York City and surrounding regions, or any other location you specify) with direct citations.